Bold takeaway: Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals look sturdier than today’s price action suggests, even as a short-term liquidity squeeze pushes BTC lower. But here’s where it gets controversial: the path to recovery isn’t a straight line, and the factors at play are multi-faceted, not a single trigger. Here’s a clear, beginner-friendly rewrite that preserves every key point and adds helpful context.
Bitcoin price analysis: the long-term bull case remains intact despite near-term declines, says Fabian Dori
Bitcoin could slip further on liquidity pressures, but the longer-term bull case remains intact, according to Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank. He notes that a short-term liquidity squeeze is contributing to the current dip, and more downside is possible. Yet improving macro data and solid fundamentals could accelerate a recovery.
Mar 3, 2026, 12:55 p.m.
Dori points out that Bitcoin’s volatility is likely to stay elevated in the near term, and prices may fall again as crypto markets grapple with a liquidity squeeze and a sentiment landscape that remains deeply fractured. Despite this, he argues the longer-term outlook hasn’t changed.
“We can expect volatility to stay high in the short term, and prices could go lower from here,” Dori told CoinDesk. “Sentiment has collapsed, and investor trust and willingness to build exposure are very limited.”
A notable chart: gold has held its ground while innovative assets like Nasdaq tech stocks and Bitcoin have diverged. Dori cautions that there isn’t a single cause behind this gap—it's the result of several factors building up over recent months.
Crypto markets have trended lower in recent months as macro headwinds and uneven institutional flows dampen sentiment. Persistent inflation and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have curbed risk appetite. Occasional geopolitical flare-ups have reinforced a broader move away from speculative assets. At the same time, thinner liquidity, choppier ETF flows, and periods of leveraged liquidations have amplified downside moves, making it harder for prices to regain momentum and repeatedly test key support levels.
Thin ice, layered: why the risk feels amplified
Dori describes the crypto space as having been “on thin ice” for some time. Long-term holders have grown wary of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and the risk of a correction, leaving the ecosystem more fractured with fewer buyers willing to absorb volatility.
Liquidity stresses specific to crypto, combined with broader macro pressures, compound the picture. Since June of the previous year, the U.S. Treasury’s increasing issuance of bills and notes has swollen the Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Federal Reserve. When those bills are issued, liquidity is pulled from markets and sits idle, which hurts liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto.
Dori notes a record liquidity event on Oct. 10 further dampened risk appetite among investors and market makers, accelerating the decline in market depth. Funding rates collapsed and liquidity conditions worsened.
Other headwinds include debates over Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative, concerns about quantum computing risks, the forced selling of reserves by digital asset treasuries, and delays around U.S. legislation (including the Clarity Act). These factors add to uncertainty.
With sentiment already fragile, even small headlines can trigger outsized price swings. “The ecosystem was already on thin ice because of the cycle dynamics,” said Dori. Add liquidity constraints and collapsing sentiment, and you have a highly vulnerable setup.
Since early October, Bitcoin has drawn down roughly 40%–50% from recent highs. The last time markets saw declines of that magnitude was during the systemic crisis of 2022, which renewed fears of broader structural risk. Dori rejects this comparison, arguing that macro conditions today are fundamentally different.
“From a macro perspective, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and counterparty soundness—the picture today is totally different from 2022,” he said. “This is not the same systemic risk environment.”
Could liquidity turn the tide?
Dori believes the current weakness reflects a short-term liquidity squeeze rather than a structural shift in fundamentals. He sees signs of improvement beneath the surface in market data.
The U.S. business cycle appears broader than before, with ISM services activity expanding and manufacturing data surprising to the upside—a traditional precursor to improving risk appetite. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target but is not at levels that previously sparked major policy concerns. The trend suggests enough momentum for the Fed to continue a rate-cut cycle in coming months, which could boost liquidity.
That, in turn, could ease Treasury-driven liquidity pressures and set the stage for a quicker rebound ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
On the crypto side, the fundamentals remain constructive: stablecoin growth continues, crypto integration into traditional finance expands, and the amount of value locked on networks like Ethereum and Solana remains robust. Institutional adoption, though uneven, continues to advance.
Dori argues that once sentiment normalizes and liquidity improves, the gap between traditional assets and crypto should narrow again.
What could trigger a recovery—and what could hold it back?
For now, sentiment dominates. Fear-and-greed indicators sit at extreme fear, underscoring the risk-averse mood and limited appetite to rebuild exposure. “That clearly indicates trust and confidence are very limited,” Dori said. “We need some kind of trigger.”
Possible catalysts include the passage of comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation (such as the Clarity Act), which would be a positive development. A normalization of geopolitical tensions could also help restore investor appetite. Additionally, improvements in concerns around artificial intelligence and sustainability narratives could provide supportive tailwinds. If liquidity conditions improve further and institutional inflows continue, the constructive case for crypto would strengthen.
Bottom line for now: the short-term view is not favorable due to sentiment, yet the structural foundation remains stronger than in past downturns. Dori emphasizes that, fundamentally, improving macro data, stablecoin growth, ongoing institutional participation, and stronger counterparty risk management differentiate today from 2022. Bitcoin’s current slump may reflect liquidity mechanics and shaken confidence more than a verdict on long-term viability. Volatility could intensify before it subsides, and prices may test lower levels, but the door remains open for a faster-than-expected turn if liquidity and macro data firm up.
In short: crypto markets stay on edge, but underlying fundamentals are quietly improving. What do you think could best spark a sustained rally—new legislation, a geopolitical reset, or a fresh wave of institutional money? Share your take in the comments.
